Technological Forecasting: A Strategic Imperative
نویسنده
چکیده
Assessing future opportunities and threats is a serious management concern. All we know about the future is that it will very likely pose new and different challenges. Hence, the basic resources which serve a business today may have little relevance under tomorrow's conditions. If a business is to survive, it must be prepared to adapt rapidly to the requirements of the future. Difficulty arises in forecasting these requirements. However imperfect forecasts may be, an attempt must be made to predict with some reasonable degree of certainty customer (product) needs and internal (process) company requirements. As inputs to the process of strategy formulation and planning, forecasts have been used to gain a better understanding of the threats and opportunities to the business, and therefore the direction and magnitude of needed changes. Since technology has been responsible for many important changes in our society, forecasting future advances in technology may be as vital to executives in corporate level strategy formulation as it is for engineers and scientists reviewing an R&D program. During the last 30 years, numerous techniques for technological forecasting have been developed to enable a manager to obtain predictions which can be used with some certainty. These techniques will be addressed in this paper with emphasis on advantages and disadvantages from the manager's point of view.
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